By Ioannis Neonakis
Following the arrest of Mr. Ekrem İmamoğlu, Turkey is entering a vortex of internal collapse, and our homeland stands before a historic strategic opportunity. The historical question is clear: is now the time for an immediate extension of our territorial waters to 12 nautical miles, alongside a simultaneous declaration of an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) with the Republic of Cyprus? In my personal opinion: yes — absolutely, now is the time, and I will explain why below.
Before Mr. İmamoğlu’s arrest, Turkey, while navigating critical international balances and despite the various challenges it faced, was advancing in leaps toward its ambition of becoming, if not a global, at least a regional imperial power. After its success in Syria, the only remaining objective was the subjugation and control of the Greece–Cyprus axis — the sole cohesive pole of resistance in its immediate periphery — in order to secure a buffer zone around its imperial center. Through a long-term, multifaceted, and ongoing hybrid war against our homeland — aided by pro-Turkish elites within Greece — Turkey had effectively driven our country into a state of Finlandization, with Greece abandoning all sovereign rights beyond the 6-nautical-mile limit.
Simultaneously, Turkey had managed to directly or indirectly involve itself in the European security architecture and the European military-industrial complex — a development that resulted in a significant international weakening of Greece’s strategic standing vis-à-vis Turkey.
The government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis, despite Turkey’s revisionism and aggression (casus belli, Blue Homeland doctrine, Turkey–Libya memorandum, etc.), inexplicably “rescued” Turkey diplomatically through the Athens Declaration and other incomprehensible actions. Its level of appeasement was such that it had scheduled yet another meeting in the coming weeks with President Erdoğan to further back down. The only mitigating factor at that time was the antagonism between Israel and Turkey, which led the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump to express support for our country (and not for the Mitsotakis government per se).
As the power gap between a battered Greece and a rapidly rearming Turkey grows by the day, it is certain that — unless something changes — Finlandization will be the best-case scenario, while territorial losses will become a real possibility.
The arrest of Mr. Ekrem İmamoğlu, mayor of Constantinople and essentially the most powerful voice of opposition in Turkey, marks the entry of our neighboring country into deep crisis and constitutes a geopolitical milestone — a tremendous historical opportunity for us. Mr. Erdoğan, trapped in the logic of absolute power and driven by the fear of total political and personal obliteration in the event of defeat, is now opting for an “all-in” confrontation with the Kemalist establishment and with Turkish society itself.
This is a titanic clash between two opposing worlds, long suppressed and deeply resentful of one another: on one side, the Islamist worldview and regime; on the other, the forces of the secular Kemalist state, the military, and the major urban centers. Turkey is rapidly heading toward prolonged internal destabilization. Mr. İmamoğlu will likely remain in prison for a long time, and his only possible exit lies in popular mobilization. Meanwhile, Mr. Erdoğan appears unwilling to relinquish power peacefully. The deep rift and looming social upheaval may trigger the activation of the Turkish military, which remains, to a significant extent, under the control of high-ranking Kemalist officers.
At the same time, as Turkey drifts further from any notion of rule of law and democracy, its relations with the West are unraveling. Russia, too, is playing a key role in Turkey’s international weakening. As it gradually resolves the front in Ukraine, Moscow is repositioning itself in the Middle East, bearing in mind Turkey’s betrayal in the Syrian conflict. Even Libya, perceiving Turkey’s growing instability, has now announced offshore blocks with very careful delineation.
Under the pressure of its internal unrest and diplomatic isolation, the last thing Turkey wants right now is an additional crisis with Greece. Beyond its practical incapacity to confront such a development, a possible defeat in a hot incident would instantly shatter the Erdoğan regime — a risk he is most unlikely to take under current conditions. Even more so considering that Turkey’s economy, already shaken by political instability, could not withstand the shock of military conflict.
In this context, Greece now faces a historic strategic opportunity. This is the moment to redefine our position and secure our national rights, capitalizing on Turkey’s weakening and the shifting geopolitical landscape. Our homeland must now exercise its inalienable right to extend territorial waters to 12 nautical miles and concurrently declare an EEZ with the Republic of Cyprus — forming a unified geopolitical and energy front. Ideally, the EEZ agreement with Egypt should also be completed.
Such a move would:
(a) implement International Law but at the same time will strengthen International Law (and this has international significance – see the USA) against absurd interpretations (see Turkey, China, etc.);
(b) secure and consolidate our national rights in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean;
(c) show decisiveness and become a credible international actor;
(d) present Greece as a stable power and security guarantor in the region, acquiring a leading role in the new geopolitical reality taking shape;
(e) open the path toward full exploitation of our immense natural resources;
(f) effectively unify the strategic frameworks of Greece and Cyprus — a development that would multiply our geostrategic potential, with direct ramifications in the Middle East, where hundreds of thousands of Greek Orthodox Romeoi still live.
Naturally, steps must be immediate yet highly calculated, supported by a thoroughly prepared plan: coordination with the Republic of Cyprus, briefing and alignment with allied or Turkey-opposing states (e.g., Israel, the United States), and, if needed, military readiness.
These are historic times. If this opportunity is lost, our future as a sovereign entity will be in jeopardy. After the crisis in Turkey — which is likely to last (unless an immediate military coup occurs) — either Erdoğan’s regime (personally or through successors like Bilal Erdoğan) or the Kemalist establishment (such as İmamoğlu) will prevail. Regardless of the outcome, an aggressive move against our homeland is inevitable — a move that will serve a “healing” and unifying purpose for Turkey’s internal fracture.
All political forces are called upon to recognize the historical opportunity and pressure the Mitsotakis government to act in this direction. The government, which was fully prepared to continue the so-called “dialogue,” will most likely fail to respond — and will then collapse under the weight of public pressure.
This is a historic juncture. Greece must act — with strategy and determination — to seize this strategic opportunity and bring Hellenism and Romeosyne back to the forefront of history and the path of development.
Ioannis K. Neonakis, MD, MSc, PhD